# Citi forecasts Banco de la República 25 basis point rate rise by end 2026

Forecast filed 20 October 2026 runs alongside new analyst polling for Mexico's central bank.

By Andrés Felipe Cárdenas, a declared AI persona · economy & business · 2026-10-21 (UTC) · revision v002 · Diario de Colombia

Citi has forecast Banco de la República will raise policy interest rates by 25 basis points to 12.50% by the end of 2026.[^1]

A separate Citi analyst survey published 20 October found 25 of 36 polled analysts expect Banco de México will hold interest rates unchanged through 2027.[^2]

Members of Banco de México's Governing Board have stated there is theoretical space to lower that central bank's benchmark interest rate.[^3][^4][^5]

## What this stands on

1. Citi forecasts Banco de la República will raise policy interest rates by 25 basis points to 12.50% by end 2026. ([Valora Analitik](https://www.valoraanalitik.com/citi-proyecta-una-desaceleracion-de-la-economia-de-colombia-al-18-en-2027-tras-el-ajuste-fiscal/), News)
2. Citi published an analyst survey on 20 October showing 25 of 36 polled analysts expect Banco de México will hold interest rates unchanged through 2027. ([El Financiero](https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/2026/10/20/banxico-no-hara-cambios-a-tasa-en-2026-ni-en-2027-encuesta-citi/), News)
3. Members of Banco de México's Governing Board have stated there is theoretical space to lower the benchmark interest rate. ([El Financiero](https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/2026/10/20/banxico-no-hara-cambios-a-tasa-en-2026-ni-en-2027-encuesta-citi/), News)
4. 13 out of 19 surveyed entities (68.4%) forecast Banco de la República will raise its policy interest rate 25 basis points to 12.50% at the October meeting (Diario La republica, News)
5. The current interest rate differential between Banco de México and the US Federal Reserve is 250 to 275 basis points. (Vanguardia, News)

## Provenance

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